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Significant Drop on COE Supply for August – October 2019

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COE Supply August - October 2019 Quota Period

Based on LTA’s press release, the total COE for August – October 2019 quota period will fall by 17.7% as compared to the previous quarter (20,850, down from the 25,347); Refer to Tables A & B ). Unfortunately, this means that all car buyers will only have a significantly smaller supply of COEs this quarter. As shown in Tables A & B, there will be a decrease in the number of COEs issued all throughout the categories.

For Category A (cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp) alone, the COE supply suffers a substantial drop of 25.8% (6,338, down from the 8,546). While Category B (cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp) is lower by the preceding quarter’s 2,083 a month (8.6% down, previously 2,278 a month; Refer to Table C ).

Significant Drop On COE Quota August October 2019

The COE quota for commercial vehicles (Category C) will be hit most severely, by an overwhelming 27.3% to just 1,699 (from 2,337) COEs this quarter. Motorcycle buyers will have 1,477 COEs a month, or 17.7% fewer (from 1,794 a month).

Notably, Category E vehicles (all except motorcycles) had the least shrinkage, a quota of 2,129, with an average monthly quota of 709 (down by 5.3%).

According to some industry experts, the wearying consumer sentiment on the back of slower economic growth should alleviate the upward pressure on prices that a small quota typically causes. Another factor to note is the number of car buyers keeping their cars beyond 10 years (COE Renewal). Hence, this causes the replacement demand to be lower.

Below is a graphical representation of the COE Bidding Exercises Results for the past 6 months.

Past 6 Months COE Bidding Exercises in Singapore

Should you wish to do a deep-dive comparison, please refer to Tables A, B & C below.

TABLE A – COE QUOTA FROM AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2019

 

VEHICLE CATEGORY

CATEGORY A

CATEGORY B

CATEGORY C

CATEGORY D

CATEGORY E

TOTAL

Cars (Up to 1,600cc and maximum power output not exceeding 97kW)

Cars (Above 1,600cc or maximum power output above 97kW)

Goods Vehicles & Buses

Motorcycles

Open (All except motorcycles)

A1)

Vehicle population as at 31 Dec 2018

314,694

300,743

152,129

136,906

-

904,472

A2)

Net increase allowed per quarter [Cat C Only] [0.25% x vehicle population / 4] (a)

-

-

95

-

- (b)

95

(A)

Increase in Vehicle Population

0

0

95

0

0

95

B1)

Total vehicle deregistrations (from Apr to Jun 2019)

7,041

6,939

3,798

3,976

-

21,754

B2)

Contribution of de-registrations to Category E (10% of B1) (c)

-704

-693

-379

- (d)

1,776

-

(B)

Replacements of Deregistered Vehicles

6,337

6,246

3,419

3,976

1,776

21,754

C1)

Adjustments for change in taxi population (e)

-

-

-

-

552

552

C2)

Adjustments for replacements under Early Turnover Scheme (f)

-

-

-1,818

-

-201

-2,019

C3)

Expired COEs (g)

1

5

3

457

2

468

(C)

Adjustments

1

5

-1,815

457

353

-999

Total Quota for Aug 2019 to Oct 2019 Bidding Exercises (A + B + C)

6,338

6,251

1,699

4,433

2,129

20,850

Average Monthly Quota for Aug 2019 to Oct 2019 Bidding Exercises

2,112

2,083

566

1,477

709

6,947

Monthly Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises

2,848

2,278

779

1,794

749

8,448

 

TABLE B – COE QUOTA FROM MAY TO JULY 2019

VEHICLE CATEGORY

CATEGORY A

CATEGORY B

CATEGORY C

CATEGORY D

CATEGORY E

TOTAL

Cars (Up to 1,600cc and maximum power output not exceeding 97kW)

Cars (Above 1,600cc or maximum power output above 97kW)

Goods Vehicles & Buses

Motorcycles

Open (All except motorcycles)

A1)

Vehicle population as at 31 Dec 2018

314,694

300,743

152,129

136,906

-

904,472

A2)

Net increase allowed per quarter [Cat C Only] [0.25% x vehicle population / 4] (a)

-

-

95

-

- (b)

95

(A)

Increase in Vehicle Population

0

0

95

0

0

95

B1)

Total vehicle deregistrations (from Jan to Mar 2019)

9,485

7,585

4,004

4,506

-

25,580

B2)

Contribution of de-registrations to Category E (10% of B1) (c)

-948

-758

-400

- (d)

2,106

-

(B)

Replacements of Deregistered Vehicles

8,537

6,827

3,604

4,506

2,106

25,580

C1)

Adjustments for change in taxi population (e)

-

-

-

-

291

291

C2)

Adjustments for replacements under Early Turnover Scheme (f)

-

-

-1,364

-

-151

-1,515

C3)

Expired COEs (g)

9

7

2

877

1

896

(C)

Adjustments

9

7

-1,362

877

141

-328

Total Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises (A + B + C)

8,546

6,834

2,337

5,383

2,247

25,347

Average Monthly Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises

2,848

2,278

779

1,794

749

8,448

Monthly Quota for Feb 2019 to Apr 2019 Bidding Exercises

3,300

2,399

608

1,651

794

8,752

TABLE C – AVERAGE MONTHLY COE COMPARISON (AUGUST – OCTOBER VS. MAY – JULY 2019)

 

August – October 2019

May – July 2019

CAT A

2,112

2,848

CAT B

2,083

2,278

CAT C

566

779

CAT D

1,477

1,794

CAT E

709

749

Total

6,947

8,448